France v England: How England can still win Six Nations illustrates fine margins

In the swish of Marcus Smith’s boot, England under Steve Borthwick have gone from being a complete shambles forever at the beginning of a transitional period into a team suddenly on the verge of being genuine contenders again.

Players who had question marks around them – Smith more than most – are suddenly the answer.

Tis a fickle game, sport at the very highest level.

England probably lie somewhere in between following last Saturday’s dramatic victory over the back-to-back grand-slam-chasing Irish: on an upward trajectory and a lot closer to the finished article than many people were willing to give them credit for.

More will be revealed about whereabouts England are in the world order in Lyon this evening.

Defeat a France team still suffering a World Cup hangover and they will have had an excellent Six Nations tournament, that one defeat at Murrayfield to Scotland down purely to the finishing prowess of Duhan van der Merwe.

Lose to France and the questions will remain and the needle will land somewhere on England being some way off.

Even when they were winning 18 games in a row at the start of the Eddie Jones era over half a decade ago, there were still questions over their direction and style.

Twas ever thus with the world’s richest union.

It is worth noting at this point, that England could still win the Six Nations, though the odds are heavily in favour of Ireland.

Despite the fact both teams have won three and lost one of their four games, and England hold the head-to-head record, they trail Ireland by four points by virtue of Ireland picking up a bonus point in every one of their games (three for scoring four tries or more in a game and a point for losing by fewer than seven points to England).

It means for the first time since bonus points were introduced in 2017, a scenario has arisen whereby the Six Nations winners can claim the title despite accumulating fewer victories than the side finishing second.

Even if Ireland lose, but claim a losing bonus point against Scotland, England would not only need to win in France but overturn a 83-point deficit given Ireland’s vastly superior points difference.

If Ireland lose without picking up a point, a four-try win would be enough to see England win the title, which wouldn’t be bad for a team in transition.

As game-changing as Smith’s cameo was from the bench last Saturday, and as indifferent as George Ford was from the kicking tee, it was not enough to supplant the latter in the No 10 shirt.

In a show of faith from Borthwick, Ford continues at fly-half to complete a full set of starts in the Championship.

It is easy to forget amid Smith’s headline-generating intervention at Twickenham that Ford has performed well in this tournament, most notably orchestrating the comeback against Wales in round two and pulling the strings to potent effect last Saturday. But for all Ford’s influence, Smith is the coming man and a stellar performance will be needed against France to hold on to the jersey for the summer tour to Japan and New Zealand.

But maybe that is where Borthwick sees the greater value in Smith right now, as an impact man.

England, going back to the days of Eddie Jones, are very much in the mentality of it being a squad game, that their men on the bench and not just viewed as replacements but as finishes.

Just ask Yorkshire’s own Danny Care, who won his 100th cap in the win over Ireland, his 57th from the bench in a role he has made his own – coming on in the second half to influence a game.

What Care does after today is unknown – knowing the 37-year-old he will want to carry on.

But it could be the last we see of Manu Tuilagi in an England shirt, a man-mountain of a centre who has dominated headlines more often through injruy than anything else for 12 years now.

Although the Sale centre has remained tight lipped over his talks with French clubs Montpellier and Bayonne, he appears certain to leave at the end of the season, at which point he will be 33-years-old.

England teams have been built around his marauding runs for over a decade and the national side are unlikely to field his like again. When he steps off the bench it will be only his 60th cap, a legacy of long spells out injured. Had he been fit for every match since his debut in 2011, he would have amassed 156 caps by now.

Talking of big numbers, France’s starting and replacement forwards weigh a combined 1,000kg. They field the four heaviest players in Uini Atonio, Emmanuel Meafou, Georges-Henri Colombe and Romain Taofifenua – each of them over 21 stones.

Such size and power comes vulnerabilities that can be exploited through clever half-back play, a good kicking game and superior conditioning. Step forward Ford, Smith and Ben Earl.

When you say it like that, this England team is one on the move.

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