Politics

Politics

Election pollsters put their methods to the test – and turnout is the key

Trust in election forecasting is probably as low as it has been since 1948, when political polling suffered possibly its worst ever humiliation. In that year’s US presidential election, the 8-1 underdog Harry Truman defied all predictions to defeat his Republican challenger, Thomas Dewey. “Dewey Defeats Truman” screamed the now-infamous newspaper headline printed before the actual votes were counted.

News
Is there a link between foreign policy and terrorism? British intelligence thinks so

Is there a link between foreign policy and terrorism? British intelligence thinks so

What causes terrorism? The combination of the horrendous terrorist attack in Manchester [and now, the attacks on London Bridge] and a British general election inevitably meant that this question would dominate political and media discourses. And so it has. Particular attention has, once again, been drawn to the role of western foreign policy, including that of the UK, as a driver of extremist violence.

Offbeat
ELECTION 2017:Fact Check - if 30% more people under 25 vote, could the Conservatives lose the election?

ELECTION 2017:Fact Check - if 30% more people under 25 vote, could the Conservatives lose the election?

An article on The Independent is being widely shared on social media suggesting that a 30% increase in turnout among 18 to 24-year-olds would make the election of a majority Conservative government on June 8 rather unlikely. It followed a tweet by Alan Firth, a linguist at Newcastle University, commenting on an article by the vice president of the National Union of Students, Shelly Asquith. When contacted by The Conversation, Firth said that the calculations made in The Independent article reflected his own.

Offbeat
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