Predictions computer forecasts where Sheffield United, Huddersfield Town, Hull City, Middlesbrough FC and Rotherham United will finish in Championship in May
Using their ratings for each team, they simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.
First, the good news. Experts reckon that Sheffield United - currently in fourth spot after a relieving victory at West Brom - will finish the season in the second automatic promotion slot behind current leaders Burnley, who head to Bramall Lane on Saturday.
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Hide AdThe Blades are given a 48 per cent chance of promotion and 23 per cent chance of winning the division. Experts are backing them to total 80 points, which they think will be enough to end up as runners up.
Norwich City and QPR are being tipped to finish in the play-offs, with Watford and Millwall, currently out of the top six, also predicted to earn their places in the end-of-season lottery. Blackburn and Swansea are tipped to miss out all together.
At the bottom, the number crunchers are backing Michael Carrick to get it right and pull Middlesbrough - hovering just one place above the relegation zone - away from trouble.
But there is much grimmer news for Huddersfield Town, Hull City and Rotherham United.
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Hide AdIt is predicted that Boro - who head to Hull on Tuesday night - will move up from 21st to the safer confines of 13th spot with a sixty point haul. Their chances of relegation are rated at just 11 per cent, despite the fact that they have won just four times in 17 league fixtures so far this term and have won just once on the road since early April.
Meanwhile, second-from-bottom Huddersfield - who secured an impressive weekend win over Millwall - are still being tipped to end the season in the bottom three.
Town, who welcome Sunderland on Wednesday night, are predicted to finish the season at the bottom of the pile with 49 points. They are given a 44 per cent chance of relegation.
Rotherham have enjoyed a healthy first third of the campaign and reside in 13th spot. But the data analysts still believe that the season will catch up with them and that they will finish the campaign in 23th spot, only above the Terriers on goal difference. The Millers are given a 43 per cent chance of going down.
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Hide AdTo complete the triple whammy, Hull - who find themselves in 18th spot going into the Boro match - are also tipped for the drop.
City are being predicted to finish in the final relegation slot with 51 points and are given a 38 per cent chance of playing League One football next term.
Here is an explanation as to how the model works https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
The latest predicted table is as follows.
Burnley | 82 points |
Sheffield United | 80 |
Norwich | 75 |
Watford | 75 |
QPR | 70 |
Millwall | 69 |
Swansea | 69 |
Blackburn | 69 |
Luton | 67 |
Birmingham | 63 |
Preston | 62 |
Stoke | 61 |
Middlesbrough | 60 |
Reading | 60 |
Blackpool | 60 |
West Brom | 59 |
Sunderland | 58 |
Coventry | 58 |
Cardiff | 56 |
Bristol City | 56 |
Wigan | 53 |
Hull | 51 |
Rotherham | 49 |
Huddersfield | 49 |