Middlesbrough will have to overcome a first-leg deficit to reach the Wembley play-off finals, but Bradford City will be able to make home advantage count against Carlisle United.

Ultimately, though, both teams are expected to progress – narrowly – to the Bank Holiday weekend promotion-deciders.

That is the verdict of FiveThirtyEight, who used complicated algorithims to predict the outcome of football matches.

Their super-computer has Coventry as marginal favourites to win Sunday's game in the Midlands, as they did the corresponding league fixture in October, Chris Wilder's last as manager.

They give Coventry a 38 per cent chance of victory to Boro's 36.

But the number-crunchers are much more optimistic about fourth-placed Boro beating their fifth-placed hosts in the second leg, rating Boro's chances at 50 per cent, and giving Coventry only a 26 per cent shot.

The sides met at the Riverside on Monday, drawing 1-1.

It sees the other semi-final as much more comfortable, with Luton Town marginal favourites at Sunderland's Stadium of Light and comfortably so in the return leg.

TALISMAN: Bradford City striker Andy Cook can expect to be celebrating on Sunday, according to the super-computer

Bradford's League Two semi-final tie is expected to be tighter still.

The Bantams, who finished sixth in the final table, a place behind Carlisle, are given a 40 per cent chance of victory. A draw is seen as more likely than a Carlisle win (28 per cent).

But the second leg is expected to be closer, with the Cumbrians rated at 40 per cent to win and a draw as likely as a Bradford win, both 30 per cent shots.

Again, the other semi-final is seen as more straight-forward, with Stockport County, who like Luton in the Championship finished highest of the play-off qualifiers, expected to narrowly win at Salford City and comfortably take the home leg.

If only play-off football followed logic.

Middlesbrough FC, Sunderland, Bradford City and Carlisle United’s EFL play-off semi-final results predicted