England's squad for 2022 World Cup in Qatar has to include risky picks - Stuart Rayner

To nobody's great surprise, injuries are already a big factor in the first winter World Cup.

With nine days between this week's final Premier League games and the Three Lions' opener against Iran, recovery time is short. Losing six weeks of the season to the tournament has forced club matches too close together.

You can see the effects everywhere. Huddersfield Town's Yuta Nakayama and Sheffield United defender Rhys Norrington-Davies are amongst those who will miss out through injury, as will England's Ben Chilwell.

But from a manager's perspective, at least their cases are black-and-white. The real problem - as with almost every World Cup for England - is those that are touch and go.

The last time Kalvin Phillips started a competitive match - England's 4-0 thumping by Hungary - he was still a Leeds United player. Kyle Walker has not played since October 2, Reece James the week after. Form as well as fitness have been behind Harry Maguire, Jordan Henderson and Conor Gallagher's bitty club seasons.

There seems little option but to risk a few key players - does anyone think Lionel Messi's inflamed Achilles will stop him being in Argentina's squad? But how many is too many?

A 26-man squad gives scope for a gamble or two, especially with those who will contribute even if they do not play.

Southgate usually stands by those who have served him well regardless of club form. I did not think Maguire should have been in the last European Championships squad because he had not played for six weeks and would not be fit for the start but the Sheffielder made the team of the tournament. So did Raheem Sterling, whose club form was poor then and is again.

But there must be a place for some players who are fit and flying, like Jude Bellingham, Callum Wilson and James Maddison, at a time when so many are flagging. Southgate's indifference to Maddison and Trent Alexander-Arnold is clear but Walker, John Stones and Eric Dier have found a way back in the past.

If those decisions make selecting a squad harder, so does the imbalance of talent. As recently as September's Nations League games, England had an embarrassment of right-back riches but not without Walker and James. Thank goodness Luke Shaw clawed his way back into the Manchester United side in October because he is the only specialist left-back you would hang your hat on.

Defensive central midfielders look thin on the ground yet No 10s are everywhere. There are plenty of attackers, but few genuine centre-forwards, which is why the question mark over Ivan Toney, on top of his non-involvement in September's games, is so unhelpful.

Phillips should be a shoo-in but his lack of football means he misses out in my selection. Starting Bellingham might force a more attacking midfield balance.

Southgate looks dead set on playing three at the back, with Maguire the only natural to play on its left. The left-footed Tyrone Mings has been too erratic this year and Marc Guehi and Fikayo Tomori (like Maguire, right-footed) have probably not done enough.

Therefore I have gone for West Ham United's Aaron Cresswell five years after his third and most recent cap. The Merseysider is mainly there to cover for Shaw - especially now Kieran Trippier might be first-choice right wing-back - but can also play in a three, and is an excellent taker of set-pieces. That will be important with England too dependent on Sterling and Harry Kane for goals, and gets James Ward-Prowse in too.

Walker is too good not to go but Ben White and Conor Coady are there just in case. As he showed two summers ago, former Sheffield United loanee Coady is another who will make the squad stronger whether he plays or not.

Southgate's record means we should trust him if he overlooks Alexander-Arnold and/or Maddison, but not knowing everything he does about them, the latter's form looks too good to resist.

Alexander-Arnold feels a risk worth taking as a wing-back rather than full-back, particularly coming off the bench to change a game. James, the best bet there a month ago, has accepted defeat in his fight to be on the plane.

A snapped Kane metatarsal is the big fear.

Again, without knowing what Southgate has been told about the seven-month Football Association investigation into Toney's alleged past betting exploits, he might be an unnecessary risk given he is uncapped. With Callum Wilson (four caps, one goal) a fragile body is the risk but his form, compared to Tammy Abrahams' dismal season, makes him worth a punt.

Marcus Rashford - who surely must bring his immense talent to bear on a major tournament eventually - offers pace from the bench as my Plan C.

Regular football has pushed Dean Henderson ahead of Nick Pope, a fine club goalkeeper whose lack of confidence with the ball at his feet means he has not convinced in ten international appearances.

England's graph has been going in the wrong direction since those missed penalties against Italy in July 2021.

They must hope talent and experience of the business end of big tournaments trump form and fitness.

MY SQUAD: Pickford, Ramsdale, D Henderson; Walker, White, Coady, Stones, Dier, Maguire; Trippier, Alexander-Arnold, Shaw, Cresswell; Rice, Bellingham, J Henderson, Ward-Prowse; Saka, Sterling, Mount, Grealish, Foden, Rashford, Maddison; Kane, WIlson.