Voters in blue wall seats struggling more than most due to cost of living, study finds

Of the 20 Tory-held seats with the highest percentage of people struggling, 19 are in the Midlands or the North.

The study, by pollsters Yougov, found that the Tory-held seats with majorities of less than 10 per cent strongly correlate with areas where a higher than average percentage of voters are “worried and suffering” as a result of the cost of living.

Conversely, the areas with the largest Conservative majorities also contain the largest percentages of people who are least impacted by the cost of living pressures.

The research categorised respondents into five sections: Calm and comfortable; Unsettled withstanders; Squeezed but coping; Cautiously Hopeful Strugglers; and, those most under pressure - the Worried and suffering.

Around one in five respondents were in the most at-risk category, while the largest group (one in four) were found to be “Squeezed but coping”.

Several so-called Blue-wall seats across the Midlands and the North have higher than average percentages of people in the worried and suffering category.

Using statistical modelling known as MRP - the same used for general election exit polls - the pollsters found the Yorkshire Tory-held constituency with the highest number of people in the worried and suffering group was Don Valley.

This was won by Nick Fletcher for the Conservatives for the first time in history in 2019.

Kingston-upon-Hull East, which is Labour held, has the joint second-highest percentage of people in the worried and suffering group in the country, at 33 per cent. A further 13 per cent are in the cautiously hopeful group there, while just 16 per cent were found to be calm and comfortable.

More than a quarter (12) of the 40 areas with the highest levels of people in the most concerned group are in Yorkshire.

These include: Bradford East (31 per cent); Barnsley Central and Barnsley East (both 30 per cent); Hemsworth, and Kingston-upon-Hull North (both 29 per cent)

The report also looked at how people in different groups currently view the amount of government action being taken to address the cost of living crisis.

It asked respondents which of the following two statements came closest to their view, that: “the government should be doing more”, or that: “the government are doing all they reasonably can” to help people through the situation.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, those in the ‘worried and suffering’ category are most likely to think the government ought to be doing more, with nearly nine in ten (88 per cent) saying so.

Those in the squeezed but coping group are of a similar disposition, with over eight in ten (83 per cent) saying more needs to be done.

In the calm and comfortable group, just over a third (37 per cent) say the government needs to be doing more, while nearly half (46 per cent) think the government is already doing everything they reasonably can.