By-election analysis: Reform need to do better than that to really hurt the Tories in Yorkshire

Despite this, Reform needs to up its game if it’s going to cause the kind of damage which it is capable of dealing to the Conservatives at the next election.

Richard Tice’s Party scored 13 per cent in the pro-Leave seat of Wellingborough, largely consistent with its polling nationally, but less than one would expect in a by-election at a time when the main parties are not inundating the electorate with reasons to vote for them.

Reforms’s main targets are disillusioned Tory voters who are often older members of the public, with the party often performing better in areas with a large White British population concerned about immigration.

The good news for Reform is that Yorkshire has got a rich bounty of seats such as this, but this by-election result will be a slight sigh of relief for incumbent Tory MPs in those constituencies.

If the Tories lose a significant number of voters to Reform, then Labour could be on track for an outside chance of taking these constituencies at the next election, paving the way for a sizeable majority in government.

If we look at five areas with large Tory majorities and the Reform’s dream make-up of the electorate, we can see that Reform poses a real threat, but only if they up their game in Yorkshire.

Bridlington and the Wolds (formerly East Yorkshire), Beverley and Holderness, Brigg and Immingham (formerly Cleethorpes), Scarborough and Whitby, and Goole and Pocklington (a new East Yorkshire seat), are good examples.

The latest MRP polling from Electoral Calculus suggests that Reform would only need to take 1 percentage point of voters from the Tories in Bridlington and the Wolds in addition to its predicted 18 per cent of the vote in order for Labour to win the seat.

Similarly in Brigg and Immingham, and Google and Pocklington, Reform would need to pick up around 4 percentage points and 3 percentage points more respectively from the Tory vote in order to see Sir Keir Starmer’s party pick up the seat at the next election under this modelling.

Under Electoral Calculus’ analysis, both Beverley and Holderness and Scarborough and Whitby would be set to fall to Labour if Reform polls at around 15 per cent at the next election.

The reason Reform is such a threat in these seats is because of the large number of Conservative voters, who are the party’s target audience, in addition to above-average number of over-65s and White British constituents among the electorate.

On average there are around 18 per cent of the electorate in a given constituency who are over the age of 65. In these five seats it is between 26 and 30 per cent of potential voters.

Similarly the average number of White British voters in England and Wales in a seat is around 74 per cent. In these five seats it is between 92 and 96 per cent.

A good performance in these seats from Reform, with the party left with plenty of time to pick up more voters before polling day, could see a bad night for the Conservatives in Yorkshire turn into a nightmare.