Ben Houchen set to lose Tees Valley mayoral election according to new poll

The polling, commissioned by communications agency Yasper and conducted by Censuswide, saw 1,001 people in the Tees Valley asked about the elections due to take place for the region’s combined authority mayor on May 2.

The results, however, are unweighted – meaning the sample is not necessarily representative of the electorate in Teesside – which could affect the polling outcome.

A victory for Labour’s Chris McEwan would be a shock outcome in the Tees Valley, where Conservative Lord Houchen won the last election with more than 70 per cent of the vote.

Speaking at Mr McEwan’s campaign launch last month, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged Lord Houchen’s popularity, saying: “It’s a tough task for Labour to win here.”

But of those surveyed, 45 per cent said they intend to vote for the Labour candidate versus only 19 per cent who said they would vote for Lord Houchen.

Seven per cent of respondents said they intended to vote for Reform in the election, however the party has not indicated any intention to stand a candidate in the race.

An insight report by Yasper said: “Our polling concluded that the Labour Party candidates were on track to win the mayoral race in both West Yorkshire and Tees Valley. While this isn’t a surprise in West Yorkshire, the result would be a seismic shock in the Tees Valley area after Mayor Houchen won a two-horse race with a 73 per cent vote share in 2021.

"However, there are several factors we should take into account. The 2021 vote was a two-horse race, which took place in a Covid-skewed world. Just 15 months earlier the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson had increased their majority in parliament in the 2019 General Election, and several of the parliamentary constituencies in and around the Tees Valley had returned Conservative members of parliament for the first time in living memory.

"The Tories were still well ahead of Labour in national polls.

"If you look at current polling, every parliamentary seat in the Tees Valley area currently looks set to return a Labour MP at the next General Election – sentiment has shifted significantly, with massive swings predicted that are not unlike the one our polling forecasts.”

Despite the overwhelming voting intention for a Labour candidate, 38 per cent of the people polled thought that the current Conservative mayor had done an effective job, against 29 per cent thinking they hadn’t. However, 33 per cent selected ‘don’t know’ in answer to the question.

Even on the controversial topic of the operation of the flagship Teesworks project, which has been the subject of a critical report about governance problems, respondents were more positive than negative about Lord Houchen’s handling of the issue.

The report said: “Despite much interest and associated media coverage, 38 per cent of respondents counted the current mayor’s handling of the Teesworks redevelopment as ‘positive’, with a further 38 per cent selecting ‘neither positive or negative’.

"Just 12 per cent had a ‘negative’ perception, with 11 per cent selecting ‘don’t know’.”