Why have Victory Day parades been scaled down or even cancelled across Russia? - Patrick Mercer

Similarly, there are those who say that Kiev was on the point of negotiations in April 2022 with a view to surrendering Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia in return for a ceasefire.

Continuing that argument, in the past twelve months Moscow has further annexed Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts and destroyed endless amounts of equipment, killed thousands of troops and captured most of Ukraine’s ports and a huge slice of her economic capacity leaving Kiev in a much worse position than she was last year.

Shouldn’t President Zelensky have refused to listen to Boris Johnson and the West - who stiffened his resolve - and capitulate for the sake of his country and its people? Well, if you believe that Russia will eventually prevail then there is a great deal of sense in that argument…but only if that’s what you really believe. Yet, twelve months later Russia seems to have made only marginal advances having lost swathes of conquered territory in the Kherson and Kharkiv counter offensives of last autumn.

Meanwhile, Russian strategists would argue that Kiev and the West are concentrating too much on mere acreage, that Moscow’s targets are the ‘demilitarisation and de-Nazification’ of Ukraine and that those aims are being met by the wholesale destruction of their enemies’ equipment and lives.

If that’s the case, though, why have Victory Day parades been scaled down or even cancelled across Russia?

The answer may be that there simply aren’t the numbers of men or vehicles to strut their stuff across Red Square and other iconic locations due to the losses that Russia has suffered: perhaps.

Much more probable, though, is that Kiev has now demonstrated the ability to strike deep and dangerously into Russia with her drones and partisans. Imagine an attack on, say, Sevastopol’s parade being broadcast live on television. Quite apart from the deaths and injuries, Moscow would be humiliated across the world whilst support for Ukraine - which is undoubtedly flagging in many countries - would get a huge shot in the arm.

That’s why last week’s drone attack on the Kremlin was so significant, but, as with all things in this ‘Special Military Operation’ there are two sides to the story.

Moscow’s saying that this was a Ukrainian attack, albeit one that was launched not far from the target by special forces - just a pointless publicity stunt. Commentators, however, have suggested that the Russians might have done this themselves in order to show the people just how serious the situation is, accepting humiliation in return for all-out support for a war that threatens the nation’s very existence.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has denied her involvement - as she always does after such deep attacks - although, if rumours are to be believed, a run of stamps celebrating this operation are being prepared just like they were after the sinking of the Moskva!

Whilst we will probably never know the exact details, none of this sounds to me like the conduct of an almost beaten nation. That said, Kiev has to do rather more than execute pinprick attacks like this if Russia really is to be driven back.

As I’ve said before, whoever is blabbing about the certainty of a Ukrainian counter attack, is breaking every rule in the strategic handbook.

Again, the pundits are saying that unless President Zelensky’s boys can deliver a knock-out punch Western assistance might dry up altogether. But there’s much more to it than that.

Whilst Russians may argue that the seizure of soil is trifling, it’s crucially important for Kiev, especially in terms of ports. Despite the loss of the majority of her manufacturing capacity in cities like Mariupol and across the Donbass, the vast tons of wheat that Ukraine produces each year have got to be exported and with only one working port, Odessa, a huge amount of revenue is being lost.

So, keep an eye on Ukrainian operations in Kherson. Commandos are already across the Dneiper river in some areas with a view, I’m sure, to opening up access to the Black Sea from the port of Mykolaev and so giving Kiev another vital artery to world wide markets.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.