Russia 'weaponising' millions of refugees in Ukraine war: Patrick Mercer

Now, I was amongst those who said that winter would stop offensive operations, that neither side would try to manoeuvre in the seasonal deep freeze and many others echoed my views. Well, I was talking nonsense and that was demonstrated on the first moment of the invasion last February when President Putin’s troops skidded towards Kyiv, Donbas and Kherson on an unusually frost bitten day.

There’s much more to waging a war in winter, though, than just the troops at the front and now might be a good point to assess the worries and concerns as both sides gird themselves for what looks as though it’s going to be a very prolonged contest. First, let’s consider the plight of the refugees who, undoubtedly have been ‘weaponised’ by Russia.

It’s hard to be precise, but some sources say that there have been over 15 million border crossings from Ukraine since February (many, don’t forget, heading for Russia) and all of these people will need to be looked after, becoming a burden on their hosts.

There are increasing tensions, especially in Poland - where the majority have run to - tensions that will only grow as more people flee the missile attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure which have destroyed heating, light and water supplies whilst utterly disrupting normal life.

Now, it depends which side’s propaganda you believe, but Kyiv claims that these are terror attacks on civilians whilst Moscow reckons that their precision weapons are only aimed at energy sources as well as crucial points such as railway junctions and bridges. Similarly, Washington’s calling this a war crime whilst the Kremlin points out that it hardly compares with NATO’s ‘Shock and Awe’ campaign against Iraq or even the wholesale bombing of Hitler’s Reich.

Whilst the moral arguments rage on, though, the bombardment continues to be very successful: it’s intended to be moral sapping; it’s intended to drive people away from cold, blacked-out cities and with initial orders being given by the Mayor to evacuate Kyiv of everyone but key workers and troops, it seems to be working.

Vitally, though, the cruise missiles, drones and bombs have shattered railway lines and deprived locomotives of the electric power they need to move Ukrainian troop reserves from one front to another. So, with most of Kyiv’s newly victorious forces around Kherson stuck in railway sidings, the Kremlin must be pleased with their latest tactic.

President Putin’s team will also be sniggering about NATO pundits’ and President Zelensky’s claim that the Crimea will fall very shortly. Even a glance at the map, never mind a basic grasp of military history, shows that this strategic lozenge is surrounded by water and cannot be seized without warships and air cover. Yet, Ukraine’s maritime ambitions sunk when she scuttled her own flagship at Mykoliav back in March and, whilst some Ukrainian fighters and helicopters do take to the skies, they’ve proved terribly vulnerable to Russian air defences.

Also, Russian reinforcements are now arriving in great numbers both north and south of the Donbas just as Ursula von der Leyen of the EU has compromised one of Kyiv’s best kept secrets. Whilst damning Russia’s conduct in a recent speech she let it be known that Kyiv had lost over 100,000 soldiers killed: not injured or prisoners, but dead.

So, with his enemies moving into another, lethal gear, President Zelensky might be forgiven for having a bleak view of life - but I don’t detect it. His troops have retaken ground whilst they’re falling back slowly but inflicting heavy casualties in Donbas and all this is being done with almost no air support, patchy artillery and shaky supplies. Kyiv’s crucial ingredient, of course, is morale: we know that their people and soldiers will battle on, but the vital question is - despite all their advantages - will Russia’s new legions have the stomach to fight?

If I were President Zelensky I’d know that as long as funds and weapons continue to flow from the West my troops’ knowledge of the ground and battle experience would be more than a match for Moscow, yet I couldn’t stop myself looking nervously over my shoulder towards the very people upon whom I depend - Washington and Europe. I’d be in no doubt that it’s their cash keeping me in business despite Germany, France and Italy’s wobbles and worrying signals coming from the newly reshuffled US Congress.

I’d look at Vietnam and Afghanistan and fret about the US’s habit of dumping her clients. That would make me wonder about all the attention my country was getting from Britain. Uncle Sam couldn’t be trying to pass his sputtering torch to sickly Albion, could he?

Patrick Mercer is a former Conservative MP for Newark and Army colonel