Labour pains

Bad trade statistics days before the 1970 General Election, coupled with England's exit from the World Cup, were credited with torpedoing Harold Wilson's re-election bid.

Forty years on, signs the economy was sinking into a much-feared double-dip recession would surely have been fatal for Labour's electoral chances.

A rise in output in the first quarter of 0.2 per cent shows that, unlike some continental economies, growth is being sustained, but it remains weak and below expectations.

Mr Brown yesterday admitted the recovery was "fragile" but justifiably pointed to the bad weather in January and the rise in VAT for holding the economy back, warning heavy Tory cuts in Government spending would put that at risk.

His opponents seized on the figures as further evidence Labour's economic prescription is failing. Tory leader David Cameron again suggested that the planned rise in National Insurance would hit employment.

What is clear is that the next 18 months will be vital in securing the recovery, or alternatively consigning Britain to a decade or more of stagnation.

Whichever party – or parties – form the next Government, they face an unprecedented challenge in steering the economy forward, given the need

for tax rises and heavy cuts in public spending at the same time as maintaining growth.

The next 12 days will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. The public's decision, however, will have an equally heavy bearing on how Britain emerges from the recession.