Is reconciliation on the horizon in the Ukraine-Russia war? - Patrick Mercer

Now, that sentence has plenty of reservations, but we haven’t heard anything like it for over a year and coming on the back of visits by a triad like this, it needs to be analysed. First, what provoked such a visitation? Well, despite the canted optimism of endless Western generals and the huge bravery of Kiev’s troops, the counter offensive seems to have failed or, at best, stalled bloodily. With only three to four weeks left before the autumn mud makes any form of manoeuvre almost impossible, time is running short for a meaningful breakthrough.

By now Kiev had planned that its troops would have reached their main objective having penetrated the Russian lines of defences in the south, lanced through to the Sea of Azov and sliced their enemy in two, but it has not worked.

Certainly, there has been some progress, yet a glance at the map shows only modest nibbles at Moscow’s land bridge. These advances, though, have consumed a great wedge of NATO’s specially trained and equipped brigades that were thrown against it.

Following this, it has been suggested that a lack of success caused Alexii Reznikov, Ukraine’s long serving minister of defence, to be summarily sacked. Some crowed that he might have survived the numerous corruption scandals that surrounded him, but it was the failure of the counter offensive that did for him. Perhaps: but his subsequent appointment as ambassador to the Court of St James’s seems an unlikely one for someone in disgrace. But, whatever the truth, Reznikov’s departure marks a change of step underlined, I’d suggest, by the sudden whirl of diplomacy that followed.

I’m sure that Blinken and Nuland are singing from the same hymn sheet and that makes the former’s statement about peace talks especially remarkable when his sidekick’s NeoCon credentials are considered.

Remember, it was Victoria Nuland who was at the heart of the overthrow of Ukraine’s Moscow leaning government in 2014 and her hawkish influence remains all pervading. Now, if she’s echoing her boss’s talk of negotiation, then Washington’s attitude has radically changed.

But what of our erstwhile PM - with the accent upon erstwhile? Mr Johnson no longer has any formal power and whilst his presence at the Yalta European Strategy group meeting may have been planned for sometime, his public utterances remain as bellicose as ever.

He said: “It was an honour to see President Zelenskyy in Kyiv and to reaffirm my absolute commitment to the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Forwards to victory for Ukraine. And slava ukraini.”

Well, there’s not much talk of reconciliation there, is there?

And this, of course, begs the question of why our former premier chose to juxtapose his comments with those of Mr Blinken.

Remember, the first time he made a surprise visit to Kiev, in April 2022, President Zelensky was on the verge of signing a peace deal with Moscow. But that was not what Washington wanted at that point and it’s now widely assumed that Mr Johnson was dispatched by the White House to stop the negotiations.

It was even reported that Mr Johnson told President Zelensky that President Putin couldn’t be negotiated with and the West wasn’t then ready for the war to end. But now, of course, Mr Johnson is as free of the shackles of the special relationship with America as he chooses to be.

So, has he sensed that the US is tiring of its costly support to Kiev? Has he read the runes and concluded that a continuing, stalemated, carnage ridden war into which endless dollars are being poured will hardly be an electoral advantage for President Biden in November 2024?

Or does he believe that the US is pushing Ukraine into negotiations in the very near future in order to clear the decks before serious, political campaigning begins? Might he also fear that America is about to do to the Ukrainians what she did to the Afghans?

He could, of course, be seriously out of touch and just banging away at the same old jingoistic drum he’s always beaten because he hasn’t noticed that things have changed - that there’s a new message from his pals across the pond. Perhaps, but Mr Johnson has never been slow to exploit an advantage for himself.

No, I suspect that Boris Johnson believes that he still has a place to claim in history and that his success in stiffening Ukrainian determination back in the spring of 2022 needs to be repeated.

Now, if the USA seems to be faltering in its support, there’s only one man who can rekindle Kiev’s confidence - our ex PM himself. The trouble is, it’s a concept that’s as lethal as it’s deluded.

But, if all this is accurate, where does it leave bold but battered Ukraine? Well, whether it’s to be peace talks or more war, Kiev must fight on either to give herself more leverage at the negotiating table or to buy more time for the West to ride to the rescue.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.