Difficult times await President Zelensky or his successor in the next term - Patrick Mercer

Meanwhile, trying to get his foot in the door or, more properly, trying not to let his foot be kicked out of the door, is the president of Ukraine. With his forces dwindling in the face of heavy casualties and the Act to allow another mass conscription of his citizens blocked in the Rada - Kiev’s parliament - the Ukrainians have been forced almost entirely onto the defensive.

Simultaneously, a reinforced and refreshed Russian army gnaws away at them on every sector of the front. There have certainly been successes - most notably the sinking of a Russian corvette off the Crimea last week - but the news has otherwise been almost universally bad for Kiev.

Similarly, their president is assailed from every side. Leave the battlefields for a moment and consider the money that Mr Zelensky needs to save his country. Finally, after much, savage arm twisting of the recalcitrant Hungary by their chums in the EU, $50bn has been granted to Kiev but - and this is the bit that the western media is playing down - this is only going to be dribbled out over the next four years.

Meanwhile, a rather larger tranche of greenbacks is held in a log jam in the US Congress as the two main parties wrangle in an election year whilst Texas spirals into open mutiny against the federal government.

To add to Mr Zelensky’s woes are his internal politics. Ukraine’s offensive in the south has failed miserably and wrecked the specially raised and equipped storm brigades which were intended to drive a wedge through the Russians.

Just as importantly, the political confidence that victory was meant to instil in Kiev’s western allies has all but dissolved as other distractions have appeared - and this couldn’t have happened at a worse time for the President personally.

Buoyed by his early successes, Mr Zelensky has been able to pass successive acts which imposed martial law and suspended the need for elections, but a renewed Act - due next month - looks unlikely.

That means elections - something which the USA has been pressing - which many believe that the increasingly unpopular Mr Zelensky won’t win. Now, critics suggest that his most likely challenger is the current Chief of the General Staff (CGS), Valerii Zalushny, a soldier who is widely admired by the forces. Those critics also suggest that his popularity caused Mr Zelensky to try to sack him last week citing the general’s covert discussions with Washington about a ceasefire with Russia and the debacle of last autumn’s counter-offensive.

But, no other general would agree to replace Zalushny: the Pentagon hadn’t blessed the deal and this left Mr Zelensky looking both powerless and indecisive.

Meanwhile, one of the candidates to be the new CGS is the shadowy Ciril Budanov, currently the head of Intelligence and the author of many ‘black ops’ against the Kremlin. He masterminded the attacks on the Crimean bridge, endless assassinations, the hard to understand shooting down of a Russian transport aircraft carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war last month, and the sinking of the Ivanovets a few days ago.

Undoubtedly a capable and ruthless man, he lacks the popularity of General Zalushny and is not an infantry or artillery general. Furthermore, it’s thought that his appointment may herald a move away from conventional tactics and the adoption of a more sabotage and partisan style of war.

We shall see whether this comes true, but there is no doubt that Budanov enjoys the support of the hugely powerful Victoria Nuland, the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

If you’ve never heard of her she’d be delighted, for her style is dark and shaded and she’s been up to her armpits in Ukrainian affairs all her life including the coup in Kiev in 2014. With her patronage Budanov’s rise is assured.

The other worrying aspect of a new president in Ukraine is the ever present and muscular influence of the country’s far right elements.

Anything that unmasks these people to western, liberal governments endangers support even further.

Then there’s Exercise Steadfast Defender. Ninety thousand NATO forces have already started war games around the Polish and Baltic States’ borders with Russia that will come to a crescendo in May - just as Moscow’s current offensive is likely to culminate. The signal the exercise sends is clear, but the Kremlin has already concluded that the tanks and guns coming from America and maybe even the mobilised troops will never go home.

The Russians see this as a huge provocation, fearing that NATO will be poised and equipped to roll eastwards in support of their ailing ally.

So, difficult times await Mr Zelensky in his next term or his successor. Whoever it is will be tested to destruction.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.