Clive Jones: West faces Yemen challenge to combat terror

And though there is some logic in the joint call by Gordon Brown and Hillary Clinton for a fund to help Yemen to defeat al-Qaida inside the country, it is hard to see how this might translate into significant progress on the ground.

More than twice the size of the UK, and with just a third of its population, Yemen sits at the south-western corner of the Arabian peninsula. Easily the poorest state in the Arab world, it remains a tribal society where those in the mountainous north follow a Shi'a form of Islam, while Sunni Islam predominates in the south and east. The rule of government often barely extends beyond the capital, Sana'a.

Yemen has rarely known peace, has been wracked by intermittent civil war from the 1960s and maintains close social and political ties with Somalia which lies just across the Bab Al-Mandab Strait – a stretch of water notorious for pirate attacks on commercial shipping.

This blend of tribal independence, poverty and geographical vastness has long been exploited by groups affiliated to al-Qaida – who have used the country as both recruiting ground and training centre.

Long before the allegations that Abdulmutallab was trained there, much western intelligence has been focussed on defeating al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. For years, the US provided the government of President Abdullah al-Saleh with training, logistics and intelligence on the whereabouts of militant training camps on Yemeni soil. In 2002 the US used unmanned aerial drones to attack al-Qaida members in the Hadhramaut region – birthplace of the father of Osama

bin Laden.

The number affiliated to AQAP remains unknown but it represents a formidable challenge to Western interests, attracting recruits from the Middle East and beyond. Its leader, Nasir al-Wuyhayshi, a former aide to Bin Laden himself, is suspected of devising innovative methods of concealing explosives on the body. Last year, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Nayef narrowly escaped death during a meeting with a Saudi member of AQAP whose explosives were concealed in his rectum and detonated by a mobile phone signal. Abdulmutallab is alleged to have worn explosives stitched into the crotch of his underpants.

Disrupting AQAP without undermining the already shaky authority of President al-Saleh among his own people represents a formidable challenge to the west, but one that must be met if further attacks are to be prevented at source, rather than foiled by good fortune in mid-air.

Yet, in theory, there are sound socio-political reasons for the West to give financial support to Yemen. Deeply impoverished – its people earn an average of less than $1,000 a year – and with poor roads and communications, major investments in new infrastructure projects have the potential to do much good, and at the same time help to pull the country's disparate tribes together.

It would also send key signals to Yemen's people that theirs is a legitimate government, recognised by the West and working on their behalf, rather than on behalf of a narrow sectional interest. A new unity of purpose could only help Yemen provide better intelligence on AQAP activities within its borders – surely a prime condition of any development aid for the state.

Yet where would this money go? Though Yemen is often typified as a failing state, it would be more precise to say it has a failing presidency. It is clear that al-Saleh has allowed elements of al-Qaida to operate within Yemen, and even used them as a means of suppressing opposition and quelling the more hardline demands of some of the country's tribes.

At the same time, he faces a secessionist movement in the south of Yemen who would like to break away from the state, again frustrated by the apparent privilege given by his Government to some tribes at the expense of their own.

And despite their best intentions, it is hard to see how western donors to Yemen could trust al-Saleh to use their funds for the public good.

How can a man who uses terror to suppress his opponents be held to account over the aid he receives, or be trusted to ensure it reaches its intended target?

Western aid could be vital to transform Yemen. The challenge is how to track that money, who spends it and what on.

Essentially cast-iron assurances are needed that al-Saleh and his government will actively crack down on al-Qaida – and be open,

transparent and use aid money to develop Yemen for the good of all its people.

Clive Jones is Professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Leeds and author of Britain and the Yemen Civil War, 1962-65.