England can make Gareth Southgate's last hurrah a happy one in 2024 - what happens next is anyone's guess

The Three Lions have been remarkably settled for six years. Jordan Pickford in goal, the three Yorkshiremen – Kyle Walker, John Stones and Harry Maguire – at the back and Harry Kane up front were the spine of the 2018 World Cup semi-finalists and the core of every major tournament team since.

Even Jordan Henderson and Raheem Sterling could still have a part to play – a year in the Saudi Pro League seems inadequate preparation for Henderson but Gareth Southgate is a fully committed fan and the midfielder surprised at the last World Cup with how he upped his game; the manager's dogmatism might go the other way against Sterling despite his Chelsea form.

With elder statesman Walker only just turned 36 when the next World Cup kicks off, it is not ridiculous to suggest the core could still be in place in 2026, but it feels inevitable the manager will change.

By then Southgate will have taken charge of the most England matches since Sir Alf Ramsey – he could well join Sir Alf and Walter Winterbottom as the only managers to 100 games – and his contract will be in its last months.

There was a brief period of soul-searching after the last Euros before Southgate signed his latest contract, more after the World Cup before deciding he was ready to fulfill it. Summer tournaments shape everything, but it feels like a last crack at glory, the December expiry date just Football Association wriggle room with replacements not leaping out.

First there is a tournament to win.

You cannot say England should win Euro 2024 – not when a Kylian Mbappe-led France will be there, not ever at a major tournament where so much can go wrong or right but so little will tip the balance.

But you probably can say Southgate’s side ought to have ended England's post-1966 trophy drought over the course of four attempts and so far they have only a World Cup quarter-and semi-final, plus a penalty shoot-out defeat in the last European Championship final.

In Bayern Munich’s Kane they have the best striker in world football over the first half of this season, in Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham its best young player. If only the tournament was now.

Add in Stones, Walker, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, the ever-improving Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka, Pickford's shot-stopping and perhaps a sprinkle of Trent Alexander-Arnold, James Maddison, Cole Palmer, a focussed Marcus Rashford or reintegrated Sterling and there is a lot of talent and plenty of tournament experience, internationally and in the Champions League, to work with.

Stones' body – only five Premier League starts and five in other competitions this season – threatens that foundation (Reece James' is worrying too), as does Maguire's ongoing fight for his Manchester United place. Lewis Dunk is a good stand-in and Everton's 21 year-old centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite has all the makings of a late bolter if Southgate is prepared to open the gate for him.

Palmer, Rico Lewis, Tino Livramento, Lewis Miley, Kobbie Mainoo and former Huddersfield Town loanee Levi Colwill will all hope to be gatecrashers too, but it is hard to see Southgate making room for more than a couple at most.

If Kalvin Phillips can get a January move which puts games under his belt, the Leeds-born midfielder might have a second consecutive big European Championship but Alexander-Arnold offers a higher-risk, higher-reward alternative as the link between Rice and Bellingham. Liverpool using him more as an orthodox midfielder rather than a hybrid one could help nudge Southgate out of his natural conservatism.

That would seem to be the key next summer – Southgate letting the handbrake off enough without allowing things to get out of control. Bellingham playing in the hole for Madrid has already pushed him from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1, a slight loosening of the tie. It is your national duty to spend the next six months praying he stays fit.

England can win it, which is a long way from saying they will.

What comes next is even harder to second-guess. Graham Potter (schooled in Yorkshire football), Steve Cooper, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and a Liam Rosenior-less Wayne Rooney seem to have played their way out of contention to replace Southgate in a market which always boils down to who is flavour of the month. That could even mean someone like Gary O’Neil with a strong part two of the season.

Highly-rated under-21 coach Lee Carsley would be a bold continuity candidate, but whether England want that will depend on what mood the nation is in come mid-July, and the Republic of Ireland could well nip in first.

Newcastle United’s Eddie Howe leads the English candidates but has a golden ticket in charge of a super-rich Premier and Champions League club at Newcastle United.

If Southgate does not end his England career a winner, his pragmatism will be blamed and as the FA always go for an opposite, an expansive next manager is the best bet.

Whether or not he inherits a winning team is the more pressing concern.