Brexit deal must be done by October - Rashmi Dube

Regardless of the level of experience you have in business, we all know that a level of risk is critical to success and is often waiting for us at the entrance like a welcome mat before we embark upon a chosen path.

Then there is failure. Failure is also a companion we encounter from time to time that forces us to reinvent, pivot and change direction that eventually leads us to our successes. But one thing is for certain, no matter where we are on whatever path, time is never really on our side and both businesses and politicians are holding on to time in different ways.

We have had Brexit. The UK has left the European Union, but the question now is can there be a deal? Covid-19 stole a lot of the time we had to negotiate but it also has shown Europe just how much a deal would be of benefit in a time of global recession. The crux of the matter is that businesses need certainty more than ever and the political timetable is at odds with the economic timetable. Will a deal with the European Union happen by the time businesses require, namely by October, or will it arrive late towards the end of the year?

Granted, the timetable is tight for October, but given that the EU has previous form in agreeing trade deals, this could be a manageable feat. Most businesses have furloughed their employees, and hopefully they have been using the turnaround time to work out a sustainable strategy to move the business forward.

Come July there are changes to the furlough offering and by October furlough will end. The temporary reprieve will be stopping at a time when there is a very strong possibility that the UK will still not have an agreed trade deal, making it harder for businesses to plan their future.

This is now a time for certainty for all parties and not a time for further games of chicken – who will cave in first? This has to be a time for parties to leave their old ideology at the door and understand this pandemic is affecting us all.

Businesses have already been tested in terms of resilience and currently have zero patience for political games. Yes, the ball is with the EU.

There is further speculation that once Angela Merkel takes over the presidency that a more pragmatic approach may be taken and it wouldn’t harm the EU to remember that the UK government comes from a position of strength unlike the last 18 months as it now holds a large parliamentary majority.

The previous failed talks between the UK and the EU should not be considered wasted time, but with the new positions created by Covid-19 and the strength of the UK Parliament a deal should be reached sooner rather than later in order to allow our businesses more time for planning their recovery.

With time moving fast the timescales have shifted and whilst we have been distracted, with Brexit left on the back burner, businesses have no more time or patience.

They are already stretched to their limits and they urgently need to see a conclusion to this matter either way.

The worry at the forefront of all our minds is also around the possibility of another spike in the R rate, which some believe will occur in October, resulting in a second wave of disruption.

The Government has already suggested that if this was the case there will be geographical lockdowns. The North-East and Yorkshire sit currently in seventh place with an R rate of 0.89 (source: University of Cambridge).

What we need is to align the political and economic timelines. Create an understanding that the deal we need to reach has to occur by October.

Covid-19 has caused the worst disruption to businesses in our lifetimes and an economic recession, possible depression, is still to come.

I believe those who have the foresight will realise that this, in fact, will be the stimulus to bring the parties to an agreement, but the question is, will it be in time?