TONY’S TRENDS: Pick a winner at Ripon
Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com this week, highlights a trainer and a couple of runners to have on your side at Ripon in the first couple of weeks of the season.
A trainer and two horses to follow at Ripon
Racing on the present site on Boroughbridge Road began on 6 August, 1900, but racing has taken place at a number of locations in the city from as far back as 1664 when it hosted its first meeting on Bondgate Green.
An 1856 OS map shows a racecourse on the north side of the Ure beside the road to Thirsk and adjacent to the railway station.
The effect of the draw
High numbers are definitely best in big-field sprints, particularly on soft ground.
But when there are 15 runners or fewer, low numbers, who race nearest the stand rail, are favoured. Put a line straight through anything drawn 7-13.
High numbers are just about best on the round course. Concentrate on the top four stalls over five furlongs and six furlongs, with more than 16 runners, and the bottom six stalls otherwise.
Cross out all runners drawn between seven and 13 in sprints.
As with last week, where Mark Johnston starts the season well at Beverley, Richard Fahey has netted nine winners, from 52 runners, in the last three years in April and May at Ripon.
Backing Fahey blind will have you out of pocket though, to the tune of 15 points.
Digging deeper into the figures and highlighting runners with a starting price up to 7/1, sticking solely to his three-year-olds and following his Irish or GB bred runners, we then find ourselves with a tidy 17.33 profit.
In the last three years at Ripon, the Malton trainer during April and May, following the rules, had a winner from two qualifiers in 2011 and a further five winners from seven highlighted runners in 2012 and 2013.
That’s a strike rate of 67%.
Horses to follow at Ripon
The Tim Easterby trained Another Citizen is two wins from six runs at The Garden Course, his last win coming a year ago at this meeting off a mark of 70.
He currently running off 75 and being well beaten, so we may have to wait for the Byron gelding to slip down the weights.
His two wins at Ripon have come at 5f and 6f, on good ground, while his four defeats have come on good to firm.
Incidentally his two wins have also come when running within 10 days of his last run.
The nine-year-old Dubai Dynamo may be worth catching soon at Ripon, placed on no fewer than six occasions from 14 starts.
His last win, here though, came in 2012, his defeats coinciding with him going up to a mark of 97.
He is now down to 81 and made a terrific seasonal debut at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting when beaten by four lengths in a 7f, 18 runner handicap on soft ground.
His wins at Ripon have come on good and good to soft, at a mile.
The Ruth Carr-trained gelding isn’t getting any younger, but, he is now back to a winning mark and it may be worth persevering with him in the early stages of the season.