Our racing pundit Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com has recently been signed up by geegeez.co.uk, the world’s largest independent horse racing website. This week Tony looks at trends for the upcoming Royal meeting.
Of the 140 Group races at the royal meeting in the last eight years, 57 have been shared between just four stables, Aiden O’Brien (23), Team Hannon (12), Sir Michael Stoute (11) and John Gosden (11).
O’Brien’s winners were all no bigger than 20/1 and when following those that finished in the first six last time out and running within 45 days, returns a 24% strike rate. Caution is advised though, don’t go steaming in to the Ballydoyle big guns blindly.
In the Group races O’Brien has had three, two, four, two and two winners in the last five years. Sir Michael has had at least a winner in the last four years at Royal Ascot in Group 2 or 3 contests with his three or four-year-olds running at a mile or further, this has returned a 37% strike rate.
Gosden can be confidently followed in all Group races at the royal meeting as long as they are aged between two and five, running no further than one mile four furlongs and with an SP no bigger than 12/1. A word of caution here though, Gosden drew a blank from his four qualifiers last term, but had produced the likes of Joviality, Newfangled, Fallen For You, Remote, Kingman, The Fugue and Eagle Top to win in the previous three years.
The Hannon stable is in good form at the time of writing, with a 40% win and place strike rate. Following runners up to a mile, aged between two and four and with an SP no bigger than 12/1 has returned a 44% win and place strike rate in the last eight Royal Ascot meetings.
In handicaps at the royal meeting, and in races between seven furlongs and a mile, 30 of the 31 winners aged between three and six, and 22 were trained in Newmarket, 20 of the 22 were officially rated 91+, while handicaps run between one mile two furlongs and one mile four furlongs have been dominated by Sir Michael, Gosden, Mark Johnston and Hughie Morrison.
Following runners from these stables, aged between three and five, with an SP of up to 16/1 and carrying the same or more weight than on its last handicap run, has returned a 33% strike rate in the last eight years.
Another horse to catch the eye include Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Awtaad, who is on course to further advertise his championship credentials in the St James’s Palace Stakes, although connections of Zonderland feel the stiff nature of Ascot should play to his strengths.
Van Der Decken, winner of a maiden at the Curragh on debut for trainer Paddy Twomey, will form part of Godolphin’s Royal Ascot squad after the owners confirmed the purchase of the son of Dutch Art on Sunday.
Racing Ahead’s Royal Ascot Ones to watch: Former Godolphin supremo, Simon Crisford has three lovely two-year-olds to keep an eye on if they turn up next week, Mokarris, Rodaini and Ripon winner Shamsaya, and you can also consider the Wesley Ward-trained Lady Aurelia (11/4 Paddy Power) and Order Of St George in the Gold Cup (7/4 William Hill).