Racing pundit Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com takes a look at some trainers to keep onside during the month of May.
I have had a look at the last three years of data to wean out some trainers who have their strings in tip-top shape for May.
First up is one of three trainers with a 24% strike rate in the month, the old stalwart David Elsworth. The 75-year-old has sent out 17 winners in May in the last three seasons, with a further seven placing, giving a 35% win and place strike rate and a healthy profit of 38.49 points.
Further investigations reveal that all but one of his 17 winners have been aged between two and four, Irish or GB bred and have an SP no bigger than 12/1. Those three simple adjustments pump the strike rate up to 34% with a profit of £58.49 to a £1 stake.
Sir Michael Stoute’s team start cranking it up a little in this month. He already has impressive figures of 44 winners from 184 runs since 2013 in May, but digging a little deeper, following Stoute’s entries aged between three and five, bred in Ireland, GB or USA and have an SP up to 6/1, the strike goes up to 35%, with a 20.86 point profit.
Godolphin, who have been stocking up on expensive handicappers over the winter, have produced 24 winners from 104 runners from the Saeed bin Suroor stable. Following his horses blindly would have you 17 points in front over the last three seasons in May, but concentrating on runners in maidens or handicaps, aged between two and five, with an SP no bigger than 10/1, would have boosted the profit to 41.51 points, with a 30% strike rate.
Solid figures from the stable in the last three seasons with five, six and eight winners in May and a staggering 53%, 53% and 48% win and place strike rate.
Following Aiden O’Brien blindly in May will have you in the poor house sooner rather than later, but keeping an eye on the great trainer’s maidens will show profit at the end of the month.
Ballydoyle has a 45% strike rate with maidens running in Ireland in May, Irish or USA bred and no bigger than 9/2 in the betting.
Richard Fahey’s three to seven-year-old handicappers find the winners enclosure more often than not when turning up at Carlisle, Chester, Newmarket, Nottingham or Warwick in May.
What about Yorkshire? Lots of winners, but losers would have had you 100 points down in the last three seasons.
Runners priced between 7/2 and 16/1 have this mini angle with a 21% strike rate and a 84.50 point profit since 2013.
Following Ralph Beckett blind in May would have had you in profit, but following his runners aged between two and five and leaving his Maidens alone and just follow his handicappers and non-handicappers, would have boosted profits to 54.84 points with a 21% strike rate.