The Grain Column with Emma Savage

Emma Savage, farm trader at Anderson Grain Marketing Ltd.
Emma Savage, farm trader at Anderson Grain Marketing Ltd.

Despite the fluctuation across the futures markets, physical UK prices have remained strong.

Old crop feed wheat has traded slightly higher at £152/T ex-farm this week.

Old crop feed barley values are still on the rise with £150/T ex-farm offered for immediate collection – please speak with the office to discuss your requirements.

Market dynamics have seen little change with good spot demand from merchants. However, further ahead continued buying interest from end-users and market shorts is met by reluctant sellers.

Wheat is currently being sourced in the south and east of the country and continues to be trucked/shipped up north to meet outstanding requirements; this is proving cost effective apart from extreme southern parts of the country.

However, long-holders may still be encouraged by the current weather conditions, which are delaying spring plantings and preventing field work on crops that are already sown.

The US wheat market is up $4/T this week, as it supports the concerns from dryness in the US plains. Recent data emphasised the damage to US winter wheat crop’s which are now rated at 32% good/excellent.

This is the third lowest rating in 30 years.

The US and China’s trade dispute does not look set to cease anytime soon.

Global grains have recently been trading on the back of the USDA report, however, last week’s trade tiff between the two countries has begun to show its influence on the Global Markets.

The CBOT saw a 4% drop in value within hours of China’s announcement of a 25% import duty on US soybeans.

However, the European rapeseed market has ignored the extreme price movements seen in CBOT soybeans seeing it as a domestic US issue. Nevertheless, the French rapeseed futures have started to trade slightly higher – influenced by the US dry weather and the recent European wet weather, bringing a slow start to the spring.

According to the latest crop monitoring report from Argentina, conditions in Argentina throughout March declined, with the state of crops now being described as “poor” rather than something to simply keep an eye on.

Persistently dry weather since the beginning of the year has captured the markets attention for months now and it would seem that the current situation is “getting worse, not better”.

As a result, we could be looking at a total soybean crop in the region of 35 million tonnes, a significant downgrade from the 56 million tonnes produced last year.