Old crop feed wheat values for spot collection have retreated to somewhere in the region of £102.00/T - £103.00/T ex-farm this week.
For those of you who are flexible on collection and are located towards Hull, March collection should offer £105.00/T ex-farm.
As for feed barley, spot collection is offered in the region of £95.00/T ex-farm – values aren’t exactly where the sellers want to be but they are holding comparably well compared to the wheat market.
News of potential changes to Russia’s grain export policies had initially added volatility to both old and new crop markets this week; early rumours suggested that Russia’s Agricultural Ministry was considering a tightening of grain exports.
However, over the last few days it has emerged that Russia’s first Agricultural Minister is in fact considering an alteration to the current export tax system; either way I think it appears to be more wishful thinking from the grain trade than anything else more concrete at this stage.
Any change in Russian wheat export policies will have serious implications for both US and EU trade – it will therefore be worth keeping an eye on any emerging stories regardless of whether it turns out to be fact or fiction!
Closer to home the European commission have this week raised their estimate for soft wheat exports this season to 29.1 million tonnes following the recent increase in sales to Egypt. This is 1.2 million tonnes higher than their initial estimate back in September, but is still 4 million tonnes behind last year’s record soft wheat export figure of 33.1 million tonnes.
As a result, they simultaneously reduced their soft wheat ending stock forecast to 16 million tonnes, an encouraging step forward.
Regardless, however, this would still be the highest figure since 2009 and a 5 million tonne increase on last year’s ending stock figure if realised.
Uncertainties regarding this season’s Brazilian soybean crop have encouraged the oilseed market upwards this week following a volatile fortnight. Mato Grosso, a northern state which typically accounts for around 30% of total Brazilian soybean output and is more than three and a half times the size of the UK, significantly received lower than normal rainfall over the last 8-10 weeks.
Harvesting is currently underway in the south of the region – this will be one to watch as output progresses.
Old crop OSR for spot collection is currently valued in the region of £260.00/T ex-farm whilst movement further forward into the summer months is currently falling just short of £265.00/T ex-farm.
As for new crop values, August collection is offered at £250.00/T ex-farm.