Well-fancied Australia ticks a lot of the boxes

Tony's Trends - with Tony McCormick of irishbigracetrends.com

Tony's Trends - with Tony McCormick of irishbigracetrends.com

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Without question one of the most famous horse races in the world, the Derby has been ran at the unique Epsom race track since 1780.

Tony McCormick from irishbigracetrends.com previews The Investec Derby, run at Epsom on Saturday

Without question one of the most famous horse races in the world, the Derby has been ran at the unique Epsom race track since 1780.

The race is contested over a distance of one mile, four furlongs (half-a-mile) and 10 yards, it is specifically for three-year-old thoroughbreds and is ran in June each year.

As you would expect with such huge prize money at stake (2013 winner Ruler Of The World gained connections over £782,000), the winning history of the race is as distinguished as is possible. Some of the great horses to have won the derby include West Australian, Rock Sand, Gainsborough, Mill Reef, Shergar, High Chaparral and more recently Sea The Stars and Camelot.

The odds of the winning horse as you can imagine have varied dramatically over the years but it does tend to go to the fancied horses with those short in the betting forecast often involved - however in recent history a famous long-shot winner was when Luca Cumani’s High Rise stormed home at 20/1.

In 1913 there was actually a 100/1 winner (Aboyeur) after the disqualification of 6/4 favourite Craganour who passed the post first.

From a trends perspective, the last eight winners have had an SP no bigger than 7/1, all came from the first three in the betting and finished in the first two last time out.

Seven of the last eight winners had an official rating of 108 or more, had run in a Group One or Two contest last time out and were running within 30 days of their last outing. Those figures bring the wellfancied Australia in to play along with stablemate Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra, while Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill and Arod also make the shortlist.

The profiles of past Derby winners are vital to the outcome of the race, given the undulating and unique track. Geoffrey Chaucer has the best profile, similar to 2010 victor, Workforce, with Arod and Orchestra next best.

Another angle to look at is a runner’s performance when running left-handed. Of the last 16 winners to have a previous run on a left-handed track, 12 had a 100% record, while two had a 75% strike rate with the remaining two winners clocking 50% left-handed.

This angle bodes well for Australia, Kingston Hill and Western Hymn. At the time of writing Australia is odds-on in some places so there is plenty of value to be found from the rest of the runners, I have shortlisted.

I will be interested to see the draw near to race day as seven of the last eight winners were drawn between three and 10. The final subject of interest come Saturday is which Ballydoyle runner jockey Ryan Moore gets the leg up on.